A mock draft before February's NFL Scouting Combine and free agency period is a bit like shopping for Christmas gifts in August or picking the next "American Idol" before Hollywood. It's a bit too early to know for sure, but you still have a pretty good idea how things will turn out. A lot can happen between now and the last Saturday in April. A bad combine performance, a few awful interviews, a poor Wonderlic test, a run-in with the law — we've seen it all before. But with the Super Bowl now done and dusted, it's time to talk draft. Here's my "probably a bit too early" mock draft 1.0.
1. Detroit: Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia, Junior
With cornerback likely their top need, the Saints would love for Jenkins to slip to them at 14. If he's gone, as he is here, look for Davis — Vernon's little brother — to be the next cornerback scooped up. Gregg Williams joins Sean Payton's staff, meaning the Saints defense may actually resemble an NFL unit next season.
15. Houston: Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss, Senior
It's a shame. For all the first-round selections on the Texans defensive line, it's still the team's weakest area. NT Travis Johnson hasn't played like a first rounder and Amobi Okoye battled nagging injuries last year. If Jerry's on the board, and I think he will be at 15, look for Houston to plug him in that rotation of young DLs.
16. San Diego: Brian Cushing, OLB, USC, Senior
Talk about Tom Brady's injury all you want; losing Shawne Merriman seemed to hurt the Chargers defense last year a lot more than losing Brady hurt the Patriots' O. The Chargers went from 5th overall in the league in defense in 2007 to 16th in 2008. Sacks? They slipped from 5th to 22nd. Their run and pass D rankings plummeted as well. Cushing's going to be a solid pro and will make for a nice addition to the linebacking corps.
17. New York Jets: D.J. Moore, CB, Vanderbilt, Senior
Jeremy Maclin and Percy Harvin are tempting picks here and if Mark Sanchez is still on the board at 17, Jets fans will be going nuts at Radio City, but Rex Ryan's D needs another corner to pair with Mr. Revis. Maybe the best cover corner in this entire draft class, Moore also played several downs on offense for the Commodores during his time in Nashville. Dynamic, versatile, and downright nasty — this would be a steal for the Jets.
18. Chicago: Larry English, DE/OLB, Northern Illinois, Senior
Who?! Breathe easy, Bears fans, this kid can play. For the first time in years, it seemed as though the Bears offense carried the Bears defense in 2008. English is young, capable of playing either the rush DE or the OLB, and a good fit for Lovie Smith's D.
19. Tampa Bay: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC, Senior
I know, I know. Sanchez is going as high as No. 3 to Kansas City on some other mock drafts. And yes, it seems absurd that he'd slip all the way to 19. But I'm not crazy about him as an NFL quarterback, and I'm not so certain NFL draft experts are either. Tampa Bay's QB spot is a mystery, and they did draft Josh Johnson a year ago. At 19, this is a risk worth taking. As for the other mock drafts, remember — most had Aaron Rodgers going second overall in 2005 and Brady Quinn going as high as first.
30. Tennessee: Percy Harvin, WR, Florida, Junior
Harvin's another guy who could go anywhere from top 15 to the second round. And although the Titans continue to pass on taking receivers with first-round picks, they may be willing to switch it up for a chance to take the Florida speedster. Put him and Chris Johnson on the same offense and you are two short of an elite Olympic relay team.
31. Arizona: LeSean McCoy, RB, Pittsburgh, Junior
The Cardinals proved a lot of critics wrong on Sunday night. They showed that both a) they belong among the NFLʼs elite, and b) Clancy Pendergrastʼs riverboat gambler defense can hold its own. Arizonaʼs defense is young, fiery and deep. With the leagueʼs worst-ranked rushing offense in 2008, look for ʽZona to add depth to the running back spot with McCoy.
32. Pittsburgh: William Beatty, OT, UConn, Senior
Yes, Big Ben gave a nice shout out to the offensive line from the podium on Sunday night. And sure, they did the job. But thereʼs still room for improvement on an offensive line that gave up the fourth most sacks in the league last season. Beattyʼs a beast who opened up a lot of holes for Donald Brown, the NCAAʼs leading rusher, a year ago.
Second Round (that's right, I've got that, too!)
33. Detroit: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee, Senior
34. Kansas City: Troy Kropog, OT, Tulane, Senior
35. St. Louis: Fili Moala, DE/DT, USC, Senior
36. Cleveland: Shonn Greene, RB, Iowa, Junior
37. Seattle: Phil Loadholt, OT, Oklahoma, Senior
38. Cincinnati: Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina, Junior
39. Jacksonville: Duke Robinson, G, Oklahoma, Senior
40. Oakland: Jairus Byrd, CB, Oregon, Junior
41. Green Bay: SenʼDerrick Marks, DT, Auburn, Junior
42. Buffalo: Alex Mack, C, California, Senior
43. San Francisco: Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State, Junior
44. Miami: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland, Junior
45. New York Giants: Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers, Junior
46. Houston: Louis Delmas, Safety, Western Michigan, Safety
47. New England: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State, Senior
48. Denver: Sean Smith, CB, Utah, Junior
49. Chicago: Jamon Meredith, OT, South Carolina, Senior
50. Tampa Bay: Connor Barwin, DE, Cincinnati, Senior
51. Dallas: Rashad Johnson, S, Alabama, Senior
52. Philadelphia: Ron Brace, DT, Boston College, Senior
53. New York Jets: Rashad Jennings, RB, Liberty, Senior
54. Minnesota: Domonique Johnson, CB, Jackson State, Senior
55. Atlanta: Herman Johnson, G, LSU, Senior
56. Miami: Mike Mickens, CB, Cincinnati, Senior
57. Baltimore: William Moore, S, Missouri, Senior
58. New England: Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut, Junior
59. Carolina: Patrick Chung, S, Oregon, Senior
60. New York Giants: Tyrone McKenzie, OLB, South Florida, Senior
61. Indianapolis: Evander Hood, DT, Missouri, Senior
62. Tennessee: Nic Harris, S/LB, Oklahoma, Senior
63. Arizona: Max Unger, C, Oregon, Senior
64. Pittsburgh: Kraig Urbik, G, Wisconsin, Senior
